No question but that China has stolen as much intellectual and proprietary property as they could get their hands on in order to get a jump on even us, the inventors of much of the technology they now have. While we work to develop tech through government and private sectors, the Chinese government can focus full force on whatever target it has in its sights. And no citizen can say NIMBY and live to say it again.
But China’s been burning through cash at an alarming rate. The war with Trump is taking a toll. Yet China has also filled the vacuum that our (“genius”) president created by withdrawing from TPP.
There are just so many tentacles that reach deep into the sinews of international trade that DJT’s unilateral approach will eventually weaken the USA’s trade and tech superiority, UNLESS his tenure is a brief moment on the world stage. We know China takes the long view.
But In the short term, Trump’s threats may appear to gain the USA a slight advantage, but only for a brief moment. And, for the moment, with the stock market booming and employment figures showing such a strong base, those of us who can will gladly pocket our winnings.
(But like the credo of the high wire iron-workers who put up the tall buildings and bridges across the world; “Don’t lean on the wind because when the wind dies…”).
I’ve had my experiences running a small international business, I’ve been at the wrong end of deceptive trade practices by foreign associates. But I’ve had plenty of broken deals and promises from associates right here at home. We’ve no premium on integrity in business. Some of us are less naive than others, and international trade tends to weed out the ingenues pretty quickly. But learning cultural behavior and norms is part of sound international business dealings. Knowing one’s trade partner (and possible competitor) is key to survival. Yet there are ways to be tough and techniques to keep a productive trade relationship that require more than threats and flexed muscle as the glue to hold it together.
DJT uses the hammer in his diplomatic pouch. The Chinese play a much subtler game. They too have a hammer but it’s in a soft glove. They practice Tai Chi and Wing Chun. Trump mugs it up with pro-wrestlers from McMann’s circus crowd. He feigns a boxing stance to show his physicality. He’s big, he’s lumbering, and he’s a target. (Take it from a guy who’s spent his life in the martial arts. The Chinese look at him
as a big, easy target. They’re wary of his unpredictability, but they’ve seen his ilk come and go over more than 55 centuries).
Who knows what the Putin’s Russian Bear sees when Trump comes barreling down on their world-shaping plans? Is he a mark? Do you give ANY credence to the claims regarding Trump having become a “useful idiot” for Putin? Is this all just smoke being blown up the rear-end of a gullible America by the Press, that “enemy of the People?”
I think we’re stepping into a trap, sprung on a guy who just can’t tread lightly through the international minefield, a guy who can’t see the punch coming because he’s used to throwing haymakers, big knockout punches. The Chinese and the Russians throw jabs. And the sucker punch is coming somewhere down the path. At the end of this minefield of Trumpian threats and inconsistently applied sanctions, there will be a series of blows to a weakened midriff, and we’ll hear the great exhalation of breath as the wind is knocked out of the big guy’s policies.
Or, at the end of this Trumpian era, will his hammer/haymaker approach to world trade, the punitive policies he threatens with allies and foes alike have enough raw power to bend the world to kneel before American Might?
My guess is that we’ll win some but lose out in the long term if Trumpism survives the man in the office.